Re: Reply: [ihc] Max sustained winds to drive in?

["Ryan Moore" <baradium@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Ted Borck" <tborck@domain.elided>
To: "Ryan Moore" <baradium@domain.elided>
Cc: "ihc-digest" <ihc@domain.elided>
Sent: Sunday, September 12, 2004 20:16
Subject: Reply: [ihc] Max sustained winds to drive in?


>
>
> On Sun, 12 Sep 2004, Ryan Moore wrote:
>
> > What is the max sustained winds I should be willing to drive the diesel
in?
> > (I'm specifying this truck becuase wheelbase is important).
> >
> > Truck is a traveler with a 3" body lift and 30" tires.
>
> > Just looking for opinions.  Looks like the remnants of Ivan will be
right
> > between me and where I need to go this coming weekend.  I'm wanting to
go
> > ahead and set down what the max sustained winds will have to be down to
for
> > me to attempt the trip.
>
> Ryan:
>
> If the sustained winds are above 30 MPH - stay home it just ain't worth
> it.  As you well know, the traveller is a vehicle with the aerodynamics of
> a small barn.
>

Hehe, slightly better than a regular scout II with the rear drop for the
liftgate, right?

At least it's longer and more stable (as well as a lower CG than my scout II
has).

> But the rule of thumb - the faster the winds - the slower you drive,
> especially on wet roads.
>

Yeah, and it does promise to be mighty wet.

> And according to the latest 5 day National Hurricane Center Advisory, 5PM,
> Sept 12, you can expect sustained winds 30+ MPH in North GA on Thursday.
> But just where - is the question.
>
>
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/122058W5.gif
>

Yeah, location will have a big factor... it might only be that fast at the
very center, which might skirt so I can avoid it.

> And where there are sustained winds, there are gusts in excess of the
> sustained speed.
>

Affirmative,  I was simplifying the situation, we'll have to see what the
gust factor is closer to the time....  I figure I'll call the weather
briefer and ask him for his data from various reporting airports in the
southeast as well as overall NOAA and NWS reports to determine the sustained
and gust factors once it is in the area, as well as a forecast.

> Of course this is all speculation by gov scientists, (Ivan hasn't even
> crossed Cuba yet) but to date the gov scientists have done well with this
> years crop of hurricanes so far.
>

The weather channel has a similiar center, but it's narrowed down a bit in
their prediction....


> At this time, Ivan is a relatively small hurricane with an eye diameter of
> 15 N Miles, winds speeds 130 - 160, but (according to NOAA) 150 miles from
> the eye, the wind speed is 30+ Knots.
>

It dropped down back to Cat IV during the night last night, but I wouldn't
be surprised if it reaches Cat V again before the ultimate landfall.  I
didn't see it drop down to 130 at any point.  It was at 165 (sustained)
saturday night and is down to 150 at the moment (where it has been since
this morning).  Cat V starts at 155 mph, so it's a strong Cat IV.

> -- 
> Ted Borck tborck@domain.elided
>

Thanks a lot for your input, Ted (and your's too Dan).


-Ryan


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