Re: problem

[Dennis Lou <dlou@domain.elided>]

>There are three doors:
>Behind one is an Alfa Romeo SZ for you to win, the others are empty....
>The "quizmaster" asks you to choose one door;
>You pick one . . . he opens a door you didn't pick,
>and behold! no SZ.....
>Now, should you change doors or not?
>I say you should, my friend says it doesn't matter which one you choose.
>Please help!
>Chris Piepers

I say you should charge up the stage, bash open all the doors, hotwire the
SZ and drive away as fast as you can with your foot mashed to the floor.  The
US Dept. of Transportation and the EPA are going to seize the car if you don't!

Oh?  We're talking about a Giulietta SZ and not the ES30 SZ?  In that case,
the problem you describe is called the "Monty Hall Problem".  I suggest
you fire up your favorite browser and do a web search for that string.
There are several websites dedicated to it.

In short, you should switch.  You choosing one door is equivalent to 
the host making a 2 door choice.  The fact that he showed you an empty
door is irrelevant.  By switching your choice, you switch to a 2 door choice.
For example, you choosing #1, him showing #3 and you switch to #2 is equal to:
You : "I choose door 1"
Host: "Do you want to switch to doors 2 *and* 3?"
You : "OK."
Host: "Dumb move.  Look, door 3 is empty."

- -Dennis
San Diego, CA
'85 GTV6

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