Re: The Future of the Old Car Hobby?

[Ron Horowitz <RonHorowitz@domain.elided>]

>The hardware/firmware is difficult to crack and hack using TODAY'S
>techniques and tools but you forgot to consider TOMORROW's techniques and
>tools.

A good point, but speculative.  Maybe you're right. Guess we'll see....

> I'd be willing to bet that with the help of an
>analog engineer or two,

And even analog engineers are getting harder to find....

>I could emulate an early-mid 80's L-Jet ECU with
>a modern embedded microcontroller in my spare time.

Since L-Jetronic uses analog circuits and discrete components, and since
they do only one job, they aren't terribly hard to hack. A fellow I know
just reassembled the motor in his motorcycle. The engine ran fine, but he
couldn't understand why the engine pulled OK until it hit 9500 RPM then
petered out. Turns out he'd reassembled with one of the the cam wheels a
tooth off. The sensor on the cam thought the timing chain tensioner had
gone south, and this put the computer into "limp home" mode. A 9,500 RPM
limp home mode??? Add in a dozen safety interlocks, a dozen sensors, a
dozen algorythms, etc., and you can see how rapidly things can get out of
hand troubleshooting a very complex system.

>Perhaps but in 2042, all cars before 2012 will be exempt from bi-annual
>smog tests

I don't think this is correct. I think the current law says that the cut
off is 1974 with no rolling cut off thereafter. I could be wrong, but you
might want to check it out.

>IMHO, the greatest danger to the extinction of old cars is not the
expertise
>needed to maintain, repair or reproduce parts since new techniques and
>methodologies can replace the old.

Well, in some instances, that's certainly true, but you'll have to admit
it's an optimists viewpoint. AFAIK, there's no new technology replacing NLA
windshield glass or NLA engine bearings, and you still have to grind crank
journals and re-upholster seats pretty much the same way you always did.
Rapid prototyping is another subject for another day, but a CNC crank or
whatever is going to cost a few dollars. Call me a pessimist.

>If a hobbyist can keep a steam engine,
>Stearman, B17, F104, PDP/11, Apple][+, Amiga1000 or Ms. Pacman alive
>and running decades after they were discontinued, why not a 1994 Alfa 164?

Point A) all are either relatively simple machines or extremely expensive
ones, but point B) who says a "hobbyist" will be able to keep a B17 alive
and running for another forty years? Yes there are a few out there, and if
you're lucky or determined you'll see one flying at an occaisional air show
or three, but for practical purposes, flying B-17's are essentially a thing
of the past.

>I think what is more likely is that gasoline may be replaced as a fuel.

It certainly will be to one extent or another.

>I also think that it probably won't happen in some (most?) of the
lifetimes

Well, to some degree, it's already being substituted for with alchohol,
MTBE, natural gas, propane, and electric vehicles.

> but if it does happen, gasoline powered
>internal combustion engine powered cars will become museum pieces or
>backyard curiosities rather than viable daily (or even weekend)
transportation.

I think there's going to be a division between cars that are in good enough
condition to warrant maintaining, and cars that have passed the point of no
return. In the future, I suspect there will be good cars owned by the
wealthy or fortunate, scrap salvaged by various industries, and little in
between. I suspect few people will be interested in restorations,
especially of oddball, unusual, and difficult machines.

It's a gloom and doom viewpoint, I suppose. Must be all the rain we've been
having....

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