Alfa Three Doors andthe Good ole Monty Hall probability trick

["C.M. Smith" <cmsmith@domain.elided>]

Isn't it a two door? My archival sources suggest the three door was a very
rare special edition commissioned by an Arab Sheik so that his number one
wife didn't have to enter the car through the same door as the number
three...er...concubine.

I mean if you think bananas are controversial, this thread needs to be
snipped right off man, or we'll never get back to Alfas. There have been at
least two very interesting articles in the magazines available in NA
recently on this very topic (probability of "winning" the Alfa from Monty,
not bananas or apocryphal..well ok downright fabricated yarns about rare
Alfas); one in Scientific American which suggests that probability theory
predicts you should NOT change doors, and the other in The Economist
(!!!?!?) suggesting, in the end, it depended on Monty Hall's integrity
which the learned Editors decided was too risky to prognosticate upon. So,
it would appear the experts (using the term loosely) disagree.

 It's supposed to make a difference that Monty was only supposed to reveal
an empty door if you chose wrong the first time. If you'd guessed right the
first time, you should win the car. Showing you the empty "room" alters the
probability, i.e. your first choice was out of three with no information
about which was correct and which wasn't. By the very fact of deciding to
show you a wrong choice, the odds change. Don't ask ME to explain, it's my
Uncle who's the statistician, I wanted to make money so ditched science at
the end of High School (dumb mistake, should've quit law school and gone
into computers, like Bill).

Now calculate the probability of Alfa returning to the North American
market anytime soon...er...I choose door number four Monty, the one with
the Exit sign, I gotta see a guy about a three door Alfa, just come on the
market, cheap like zuppa pavese, and do you think anyone will notice if I
get a good panel beater to weld the third door shut? 
Michael Smith
Calgary, Alberta
Canada
91 Alfa 164L, White, original owner 

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