Guessing games

[JHertzman@domain.elided]

In AD7-1321 Andrew Watry asks impossible questions- how many Giulias in the 
US, an overall breakdown by model of the number of Alfas remaining in the US- 
- - 

It would be impossible to find the number of cars registered, harder still to 
guess the number of unregistered survivors. One could count the number of 
AROC members, the number of digestisti, make assumptions about how many 
owners are neither, make further assumptions about how many cars each of them 
has on average, and end with many "perhaps" numbers-

There are production figures for all models, and with the coming of the Spica 
cars there were for the first time specific USA "types" counted separately 
and their production numbers listed in Fusi. Beyond Fusi, d'Amico & Tabucchi 
list ranges of serial numbers allocated to types, providing maximum numbers 
for the USA-spec cars but not reliable minimums. And of course some USA-spec 
cars left the country, and some Eurospec cars were brought here by owners.

This we know: 
1.7% of the 1750 Berlinas built were USA-spec cars - 1,759 cars.
5.6% of the 1750 GT Veloces built were USA-spec cars - 2,465 cars.
46.4% of the 1750 Spiders built were USA-spec cars - 4,049 cars.

If a similar percentage of total Giulia Supers came over, it would have been 
2,118 cars - I would guess that is a tad high.

If a similar percentage of total Giulia Sprint GT and Sprint GTVs came over, 
it would have been 2,023 cars.

If a similar percentage of total Duettos came over, it would have been 2,934 
cars.

For the 2000 Berlina, at most 3,200 (about 3.7%) were USA-spec cars.

For the 2000 GTV, a maximum of 4,447 (about 13.4%) were USA-spec cars.

I didn't count the 2000 Spiders -- 

Call it about 28,000 cars between the last Giulietta and the first Alfettas.

I would guess at a maximum between five and ten percent may survive- 1,400 to 
2,800. The modest original price of the four and six cylinder Alfas, and 
normal depreciation, guarantees (still) that every car reaches a point at 
which some owner weighs the probable market value against the costs of full 
paint plus bodywork, or reupholstery, or mechanical repairs, and most (even 
dedicated Alfa-lovers) decide not to invest more in the maintenance required 
for long-term survival. A few disregard resale value and maintain their cars 
forever; fewer still resurrect cars from the bottom of the depreciation curve 
and spend unstintingly (take a bow, Godfrey). Most don't. 

If the 5% figure is about right, there would be a hundred or so Giulia 
Supers, a hundred or so stepnoses, a hundred fifty Duettos, two-fifty 
Berlinas, three-fifty smoothnoses, about the same number of pre-spoiler 
squaretails.

But I wouldn't bet on it.

John H.

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